The Arizona Cardinals are not expected to win their division or make the playoffs. They have the longest odds of any team in the NFL of winning their respective division, according to FanDuel’s Sportsbook, a projection shared by multiple sportsbooks. There’s not much in the way of expectation for the team, but with a new coach and some roster turnover, it’s entirely possible that Arizona makes some noise and undermines everyone’s expectations of them.
If the Cardinals are lucky, they’ll follow the path of the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals — also the team with the longest preseason odds to win their division that year — who won their division and set up a team that has the long-term chops to consistently compete for the Super Bowl.
A wide range of outcomes makes the NFL exciting, but it would take a number of things going the right way for Arizona to make that kind of splash. They have the makings of a defensive turnaround with a new defensive-minded head coach and could field a more NFL-friendly offense without an Air Raid head coach, one that might more fully develop Kyler Murray.
Predicting the Best-Case Scenario for the Arizona Cardinals’ 2023 NFL Season
The only reasonable scenario where the Cardinals can make a big splash involves the rest of the division failing to meet expectations. The San Francisco 49ers are considered to be one of the best teams in the NFC, and the Seattle Seahawks made a surprising run with the revival of quarterback Geno Smith’s career. The Los Angeles Rams, meanwhile, aren’t considered serious contenders, but the health of Matthew Stafford might make life tough for Arizona.
Each of those teams has significant room for uncertainty, however. The 49ers have no guarantees with regard to Brock Purdy’s health or Trey Lance’s progression as a passer. San Francisco lost their defensive coordinator and some members of their secondary, meaning their defensive dominance might not repeat itself.
If Purdy’s play was just a fluke last year, or his injury inhibits him too much while the 49ers’ defense fails to live up to expectations, the division will be wide open. That’s especially the case given that the next contender for the divisional crown also has a one-year wonder at quarterback, one who struggled down the stretch. If Smith can’t sustain his play, then the porous Seattle defense from last year might give Arizona the chance to take the division.
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For that, they have to play well themselves. Arizona’s Air Raid offense stunted Murray’s development and also made them remarkably predictable. This should allow the offense to sustain itself throughout the entire season instead of the typical second-half-of-season letdown that Cardinals fans have become used to.
It also means that Murray might use play-action much more often. A quarterback with his skill set should not find himself ranked 34th in the NFL in play-action rate. Murray also avoids passing into the middle of the field, utilizing that range of the field even less than Russell Wilson, who was correctly criticized last year for his inability to hit intermediate passes between the tackles.
Murray still needs players to throw to, however, and the loss of DeAndre Hopkins complicates factors. It would have to mean the rapid development of rookie Michael Wilson and further development from third-year player Rondale Moore, who has shown remarkable explosiveness but not consistency with his time in Arizona. A revival of Zach Ertz’s level of play and more from second-year tight end Trey McBride could mean a more complete roster.
A well-designed offense, like the one head coach Jonathan Gannon coached against in practice when he was the DC for the Eagles, should also be able to maximize the running game without a premier RB simply by virtue of threatening to run with Murray.
On defense, the Cardinals will likely find more defined roles for their positionless players. That should allow Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons to develop more fully at their intended positions while Budda Baker can continue to star as their versatile strong safety. It would mean needing to see immediate returns from edge rusher BJ Ojulari and cornerback Garrett Williams, but that’s not outside the realm of possibility.
Last year, the Cardinals ranked 20th in the first half of the season in EPA per play, so even avoiding the second-half-of-season slump they generally see wouldn’t be enough. Yet, the 30th overall ranking they experienced after Week 10 last year would be nice to avoid.
It’s still very doable, however. Arizona ranked first in EPA per play through Week 9 in 2021. Even without Hopkins, the raw talent is there. Should Murray genuinely develop, the sky’s the limit.
Predicting the Worst-Case Scenario for the Cardinals’ 2023 Season
The worst case for the Cardinals isn’t too difficult to envision — it’s the path they’re currently on. There are no guarantees that Gannon will be a good head coach in his debut, and there’s little evidence that first-time offensive coordinator Drew Petzing can design an efficient offense. Defensive coordinator Nick Rallis is also up for his first stint as a defensive play-caller, meaning the coaching staff is incredibly inexperienced at the most important spots.
It could very well be the case that Murray isn’t a good classical QB and may have been dependent on the system for his production. In that case, a modern NFL offense likely would do much for him and could even exacerbate his flaws.
It shouldn’t be overstated what Hopkins has done for Murray. In games where Hopkins played with Murray, the latter averaged 7.68 yards per attempt and enjoyed a passer rating of 102.0, with 7.53 adjusted yards per attempt. Without him, he’s averaged 6.58 yards per attempt, a passer rating of 93.2, and an adjusted yards per attempt of 6.33.
This means that compared to the 2023 quarterbacks, Murray ranked fourth in passer rating, seventh in yards per attempt, and 10th in adjusted yards per attempt with Hopkins and 13th, 28th, and 26th in those respective metrics without him.
It’s asking quite a lot to demand that receivers like Moore and Wilson step up to a player of Hopkins’ caliber. Even with Arizona’s first-round pick along the offensive line, the issues there aren’t resolved. There are still reasonable concerns about Hjalte Froholdt and Will Hernandez, as well as the concern that Kelvin Beachum could fall off.
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All of those combine for some dire straits along the offense, with the defense remaining a concern. The Cardinals would have to rely almost entirely on Ojulari to produce their pass rush, and they didn’t exit the draft with a stout secondary.
Even if Williams develops into a long-term solution at corner, his rookie year could be rough. Additionally, the performances of players like Antonio Hamilton, Marco Wilson, and Jalen Thompson in the secondary don’t exactly inspire confidence — neither does Simmons or Collins.
All of that occurs with a background of a division that contains a Super Bowl favorite. Whether or not Purdy is a “legitimate” QB threat might be immaterial. Kyle Shanahan is still the head coach of the 49ers, and he knows exactly how to use players like Purdy. If he’s healthy, a defensive corps that still has All-Pro quality talent at all three levels of the defense could still dominate the division and the Cardinals, in particular.
With the return of a fully healthy secondary in Seattle, boosted by first-round pick Devon Witherspoon, there’s a good chance that the Seahawks are able to take a huge leap defensively. Add in perhaps the top receiver in the draft on offense, and they could stave off any unsustainability in Smith’s game with more raw talent.
It will be tough for the Cardinals to compete in the NFC West, especially without the experience in the coaching staff to deal with the multitude of threats on their schedule. In the worst-case scenario, Arizona could easily be picking first in the draft.
