NFL predictions about the Seattle Seahawks could hardly have been more glaringly wrong in 2022. While many observers expected Pete Carroll’s team to bottom out following its trade of franchise icon Russell Wilson, the Seahawks ended up getting the last laugh via a surprising playoff performance.
Expectations will be much higher in Seattle heading into the 2023 season. What are the best and worst-case scenarios for the Seahawks as they aim to surpass their nine-win total from a year ago?
Predicting the Best-Case Scenario for the Seattle Seahawks’ 2023 NFL Season
The Seahawks might be the fourth-best team in the NFC, which means they’re in the conversation to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.
The Seahawks Are In Their Super Bowl Window
No one expected Geno Smith to play like a back-end MVP candidate for much of last year, but that’s precisely what he did. Although he hadn’t served as a regular starter since 2014, Smith led the NFL in completion percentage and ranked seventh in QBR and expected points added per dropback.
While Smith’s breakout seemingly came out of nowhere, he displayed skills that should be repeatable into 2023. Smith consistently navigated the pocket under pressure and finished third in PFF’s Big Time Throw rate (5.4%), trailing only Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers.
Seattle’s offense ranked ninth in scoring and 13th in efficiency last season, but they should be able to take a step forward next year. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are returning after posting 1,000 yards each in 2022, while first-round rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks like a perfect complementary piece in the slot.
Kenneth Walker III still projects as the Seahawks’ bell cow even though they drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round. Walker was a home-run hitter during his rookie season but needs to show more on a down-to-down basis.
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If second-year offensive tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas can improve upon their solid rookie campaigns, Walker could find more available rushing lanes.
The NFC is a top-heavy conference, and Seattle slotted in behind the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys in PFN’s most recent NFL Power Rankings. The playoffs are often a crapshoot, but the Seahawks shouldn’t have any trouble getting into the dance and competing with the best teams.
Seattle’s Secondary Could Be Elite
The Seahawks have invested significant resources in their defensive backfield in recent years, and in a best-case scenario, the unit could become one of the league’s most dominant by the end of next season.
Seattle landed arguably the biggest steal of the 2022 NFL Draft by finding cornerback Tariq Woolen in the fifth round. Woolen went on to lead the league in interceptions, while fellow rookie Coby Bryant now projects as the club’s long-term slot defender.
MORE: What Would’ve Happened If the Eagles Traded Jalen Hurts to Seahawks for Russell Wilson in 2022?
Mike Jackson was a competent No. 2 corner for the Seahawks last season, but the team upgraded by selecting Devon Witherspoon with the fifth pick in this year’s draft. If Witherspoon’s physicality immediately translates to the NFL level, Seattle’s pass defense — which ranked 17th in DVOA last year — should improve.
At safety, Jamal Adams must overcome his repeated injury issues after appearing in just one game in 2022, but the Seahawks have depth in the back end. Quandre Diggs is still an above-average free safety, while Seattle’s signing of Julian Love (two years, $12 million) was one of the most underrated moves of the free agency period.
Predicting the Worst-Case Scenario for the Seattle Seahawks’ 2023 NFL Season
While the 2023 Seahawks boast plenty of upside, things don’t always break the right way. What potential problems could Seattle face next year?
Will Geno Smith Regress?
While the traits that Smith showed off last season appear to be translatable, there’s always a chance he turns back into a pumpkin. We haven’t seen a quarterback come out of the blue and post a season like Smith did in 2022, so it’s fair to wonder how he’ll continue his progression as he enters his age-32 campaign.
The Seahawks didn’t use a draft pick on a quarterback this year. While Seattle might have considered C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson had they fallen to the fifth pick, general manager John Schneider ultimately decided not to bring in a young signal-caller via the draft.
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If Smith doesn’t look like a starting quarterback in 2023, the Seahawks will essentially be back to square one under center. Unless they bottom out and secure a top-three pick in next year’s draft, Seattle probably won’t have a viable path to finding a youthful passer, meaning they could have to approach the veteran market.
From a financial perspective, the Seahawks will still be in good shape even if Smith falters. Although Smith nominally inked a three-year, $75 million pact, it’s really more of a one-year, $27.5 million deal. Seattle could release Smith after the upcoming season and clear nearly $14 million in salary cap space.
Can the Interior Offensive Line Hold Up?
The one area of the Seahawks’ roster that still looks like a weakness is their interior offensive line. Damien Lewis is above average at left guard, but right guard Phil Haynes and center Evan Brown could present problems.
Haynes rotated snaps with Gabe Jackson last season and has shown flashes of promise, but he’s still something of an unknown. Brown made 24 starts for the Lions over the past two years but gave up 22 pressures in 2022 and struggled in the run game.
Seattle’s offseason might look even better had they used their final second-round pick on an interior blocker like John Michael Schmitz or O’Cyrus Torrence instead of Charbonnet. It shouldn’t be surprising if the Seahawks consider adding a free agent lineman before the season begins.
