If you were to argue that the most wonderful time of the year actually starts this Saturday, December 17, with NFL games all day and all weekend long, I’d be the first to shoot my hand up in agreement.
On Saturday, it’s a triple-header of games featuring two divisional matchups following the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings game from Minneapolis at 1 p.m. ET. The Baltimore Ravens head to Cleveland to face the Browns, while the Miami Dolphins head up to Buffalo for a date in the snow with the Bills.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has had a resurgent year with Mike McDaniel as head coach, but his numbers in cold weather games are brutal. Via Jeff Kerr of CBS Sports, in games of 51 degrees or colder, Tagovailoa is 0-4; losing by a combined 83 points.
Curious to learn more about each team from a betting perspective heading into the weekend?
Below are noteworthy NFL betting trends for all 32 teams in action this week, as we’ve sorted out all the stats that matter little to bettors as they look to find whatever edge they can find in each matchup.
For betting previews and picks on every Week 14 game, check out the BetSided NFL Expert Picks and Predictions page for further analysis, plays, props and more.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 17 – ALL DAY SLATE
Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Trends and Odds
Colts:
Before Jeff Saturday took over as head coach, the Colts had been the best UNDER team in the NFL, going 1-8 in the first nine games. Since Saturday took over, the Colts have gone 3-1 to the OVER.
Vikings:
The Vikings play into the recent trend of overs we’ve seen from the Colts. They’re 4-0 to the over vs. teams with losing records, while also going 5-1 to the over in their last six games at home, and 4-1 in their last five overall.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Trends and Odds
Ravens:
Another day, and another John Harbaugh trend as a road dog worth mentioning.
Since Harbaugh became head coach in 2008, the Ravens are 51-32-6 ATS (61.5%) as an underdog. As an underdog on the road, they’re 41-24-5, covering over 63% of their games.
Browns:
Kevin Stefanski’s Browns have not been a winning bet for those backing them as favorites during his tenure. Stefanski is just 8-17 ATS as a favorite as head coach in Cleveland, only covering 32% of those games.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Trends and Odds
Dolphins:
We already mentioned Tua Tagovailoa’s brutal numbers in cold weather games, but even before he was there, Miami does not like playing in Western New York. The Dolphins are 1-9 in Buffalo over their last 10 games.
Via Shane G. Tyler, Miami has allowed an average of 31 points-per-game in those nine losses, while scoring an average of less than 15 points in those games
Bills:
December has been kind to the Josh Allen-led Bills over the past few seasons, going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the final month of the year. They also tend to bounce back with a vengeance vs. the number, going 9-3-2 ATS over their past 14 matchups after an ATS (via Covers).
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 18 – EARLY AFTERNOON SLATE
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans Betting Trends and Odds
Chiefs:
The Chiefs come into this week’s matchup as two touchdown favorites after their road win in Denver, failing to cover the 9-point spread. Given their history of late, that may not be a good thing. Kansas City is just 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with losing records.
Furthermore, coming off a straight up win, Kansas City is just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
Texans:
The Texans don’t have a straight up win at home, but they are 2-4-0 ATS in their home stadium. Not surprisingly, as a home underdog, they are also 2-4-0 ATS.
Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets Betting Trends and Odds
Lions:
Detroit is 6-0 ATS over their last six, and 9-3-0 ATS on the season. Since 2021, only the Cincinnati Bengals (24-10-0) and Dallas Cowboys (21-10-0) have a better ATS record than the Lions. Their combined W/L record since 2021 is 44-21-0. The Lions are 9-20-1 SU.
Jets:
NY comes in third in the NFL ATS this year with six other teams (8-5-0). When they do cover, they cover big. The Jets trail only the Dallas Cowboys in ATS +/- this year (+5.7), making them the second-most dominant team in the NFL in the amount of points by which they cover.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends and Odds
Cowboys:
Trends indicate that the best time to bet the Cowboys is not just after an ATS loss, but also on the road. Dallas is 6-0 ATS following a loss vs. the number, and have gone 11-3 ATS over their last 14 away from AT&T Stadium.
Jaguars:
While both teams have an affinity for putting up points of late, unders have hit in six of the last games at home for Jacksonville, including going 7-1 in their last eight home games vs. teams above .500 (via Covers).
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Trends and Odds
Falcons:
The Falcons were the last remaining team in the NFL to begin the season with an undefeated record ATS at 6-0. Via Sharp Football Analysis, since covering in their first six games, they’ve gone a league-worst 1-6 ATS since.
Saints:
The Saints’ defense has slowly begun to turn their season around. Since Week 8, they rank in the top 3 in yards-per-play on defense. As a result, unders have begun to hit much more often for New Orleans, going 5-1 in their last six games.
The under has also hit 11 of the last 15 times in matchups against NFC South divisional opponents.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Trends and Odds
Steelers:
Mike Tomlin is the underdog covering king of the NFL, going 49-30-5 ATS as a dog; covering 62% of those games. Tomlin’s teams are constantly live to win as a dog too. The now 16-year NFL head coach is 40-44-0 straight up as an underdog over his career.
Panthers:
After starting the season 1-5 ATS, the Panthers are one of the hottest teams covering in the NFL right now. Carolina is 4-0 ATS in their last four games, and have covered in six of their last seven games. They’re also 3-0 straight up in their last three games at home, and still own the biggest outright upset of the season.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears Betting Trends and Odds
Eagles:
Philadelphia still owns the best record in the NFL at 12-1-0, and are a solid 8-5-0 ATS for the season. However, their home/road ATS splits are something worth considering. Philly is 6-1-0 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field, and just 2-4-0 ATS away from home. Philly has also covered in five consecutive games vs. Chicago.
Bears:
Overs have hit in Chicago’s last seven straight games, including going 6-0 to the over following a SU loss.
Also, while not a betting trend, is still insanely cool via Courtney Cronin of ESPN.com
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 18 – LATE AFTERNOON SLATE
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Trends and Odds
Patriots:
Bill Belichick might only be 42-40 ATS without Tom Brady under center, but the future Hall of Famer is great at making sure his teams don’t let up against weaker competition. Belichick and the Pats are 7-1 ATS over their last eight games vs. teams below .500.
However, against his former assistant coaches and players, Belichick, via NBC Sports Boston, is 18-19 straight up over his career.
Raiders:
The Raiders can’t cover against bad teams, and only cover against good ones. Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS in 2022 vs. teams above .500, and 2-7-1 ATS against below .500 teams this year.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos Betting Trends and Odds
Cardinals:
Welcome to Kliff Kingsbury Road Dog Island!
For all the issues the Cardinals’ head coach has had since 2019, his teams have consistently found a way to cover away from home. Kingsbury is 23-13-2 as an underdog, 20-9-2 ATS away from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, and 16-5-2 as an underdog on the road.
Broncos:
Last week’s near comeback win for the Broncos was just the second time all season that the over hit in their 13 matchups this season.
The Broncos, via Covers, going all the way back the last 71 games, are 48-22-1 to the UNDER, hitting at an absurd 68.6% rate).
Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends and Odds
Titans:
As an underdog of three points or more, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is 21-8 ATS in his head coaching career in Tennessee.
However, after going on an 8-0 run ATS from Weeks 3-11, the Titans have failed to cover in three straight games; one of which was as a 4.5-point underdog to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Chargers:
L.A. is 8-5-0 overall ATS this season, but when they’re favored, they often tend to struggle.
The Chargers are 4-4-0 ATS as a favorite this season, and just one win ATS (1-3) when they’re 3-point favorites or more at home.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends and Odds
Bengals:
Since the start of of the 2021 season, no team has covered more games than Cincinnati, going 24-10-0 ATS for a cover percentage of 70.6%.
The Bengals have also been a dominant covering team on the road, covering the spread at just under 78% during that time (14-4-0 ATS).
Buccaneers:
The Bucs are still in search of their first ATS victory of the season at home, going 0-5-1 ATS at Raymond James Stadium this year.
Tampa has been in a tailspin of late covering the number. Via Covers, the Bucs are just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 18 – SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Betting Trends and Odds
Giants:
Only the aforementioned Bengals have a better overall record vs. the number than the Giants, who enter Sunday night’s game 9-4-0 ATS this season. New York has also covered in five consecutive games following a straight up loss.
Commanders:
Since beginning the season 1-4 ATS, Washington has since covered in six of their last seven games. Perhaps switching from Carson Wentz to the new cover king of the NFL, Taylor Heinicke has been the reason. Heinicke is 11-3-1 ATS in his last 15 games, and 7-1-1 over his last nine.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 19 – MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Trends and Odds
Rams:
After Baker Mayfield and the Rams’ remarkable comeback in Week 14 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders at home, they’ve covered in two straight games after a stretch of 1-7 ATS over their previous eight.
L.A, however, has had their share of issues covering vs. the Packers; going 0-8 ATS in their last eight matchups.
Packers:
Aaron Rodgers is 11-8 SU on Monday Night Football over his career, but the better play for Green Bay may be on the total instead. The Packers are 4-0 to the over in their last four games, 4-1 in their last five games at home, and 7-1 to the over vs. teams below .500.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
